VUCAD: Uncertainty
Uncertainty is the repeating “what if” in our heads. It’s the sense of something spinning out of one’s reach. Someone can have a sense of the range of outcomes for a situation, but they might not know which is more likely. When constantly facing Uncertainty, going about the day can feel like one "best guess" after another. There is an uneasy feeling that leads to thinking through what could happen. People think about the chance of something happening and find the safest path to get there. There may be a correct path to choose, but people don't know what challenges are waiting for them or what form they will take. Because no one can predict the future, they can only estimate the length and complexity of the journey.
When faced with uncertainty, individuals often choose an approach they consider measured and appropriate — calculating the probability of each outcome and finding a middle path that accounts for the most likely outcome or most probable outcome. However, many fall into the trap of not accounting for which outcome bears the greatest risk. Uncertainty can also stem from not having enough knowledge about the situation or information on how to solve the problem, leading to even more ill-fated results.
Uncertainty represents the potential slow-downs, road-blocks, and unpredictable externalities one cannot know before moving through the day. Because of this, the secret to counteracting Uncertainty is learning more about what can prevent task and goal completion. They should be about overarching areas that are directly impactful to the specific individual. It’s vital to focus on the uncertainties that will DEFINITELY cause more problems (or uncertainties that bear the greatest risk) if they occur and are not responded to immediately. These are the dangerous uncertainties that can derail goal progress and stop people completely.
If someone handles Uncertainty well, they make quick, accurate decisions - even when presented with unclear or incomplete information, or multiple potential decisions. When making a plan of action for the day, one should consider the potential uncertainties they might encounter along their planned path. Investing time to learn more about the obstacles or issues one may face while executing important tasks and activities can teach people to effectively reduce the impact of Uncertainty on their work and life. In the best-case scenario, the uncertainty predicted does not happen, and life goes on. Worst case, one is prepared for an outcome they predicted and knows exactly where to go from there, reaching the goal without being stopped by the roadblock.
While predicting potential uncertainties and planning for contingencies is important, the other side, people might miss the forest for the trees. Getting bogged down in the specifics of what might happen could hinder and prevent one’s ability to make choices; they become concerned with all of the negative consequences of potential choices, and they forget to look at why they were making the plan in the first place. Don’t lose sight of the main goals just because of something that might happen. When coming up with a list of uncertainties, visualizing and mapping out the uncertainties' consequences helps keep sight of the big picture.
Reflecting on those potential consequences has the added benefit of giving people ‘experience’ with planning and adapting without the mess of the actual consequences. Learning from hypothetical situations is one of the best ways to obtain the positives of an experience while reflecting on what went wrong; that way, one can be ready for a situation, even if it’s the first time. What are topics you will learn more about to reduce Uncertainty in your life?
